Stardate
20030307.1529 (On Screen): I think that France and Germany gave up hope of preventing us from actually going to war quite a while ago. What they've been angling for in the recent past is to avoid any kind of straight up-or-down vote about the subject in the UNSC. Maybe a month ago, there were leaks out of the State Department that we'd go to the UN for another resolution but only if we really thought it would pass.
Of course, that forces all the members of the UNSC to actually go on record on the subject, and a lot of them don't want to be in that position. France, certainly, doesn't and neither really do a lot of the non-permanent members such as Chile. So we're getting repeated condemnations and threats about refusal to go along with another resolution, all in hopes of convincing us to not even bother asking.
The US and UK have now squashed that hope. In his press conference last night, Bush made absolutely clear that he was ready to order the attack whether the UN approved or not. He also made clear that he wanted a UNSC vote whether it was expected to pass or not; he wanted "people to show their cards". He isn't going to let the members of the UNSC duck the question; he's determined to get a vote no matter how it will go. And yesterday Blair said that he was ready to go to war even if there were multiple vetos.
Today the UK circulated a proposal for an amendment to their previous resolution. The wording of it is interesting. If it passes, then what it says is that the game ends on March 17 unless the UNSC passes another resolution which says that it finds Iraq's cooperation to be acceptably good. Since there's no chance in hell of that happening, then if this were to pass it would mean that the diplomatic game would end on Monday week.
And there indications that the military preparations are mature. Now that it's clear there's no hope for a northern front, there's nothing left to wait for. Enough forces are in the region and they've had enough time to prepare; they're ready to go. And further delays at this point could be very dangerous. So it looks like a date has finally been set.
The Germans and the French hate this amendment. They read it correctly; Fischer says it would lead to war. He's right. That is exactly what it's supposed to do.
Or rather, there's going to be war no matter what. But what this amendment does is force Fischer and Schröder and Chirac and Putin and the Chinese to go on record as to whether they want to defend and protect a murderous dictator.
It's worse than that. There's an article in The Telegraph which claims to be based on a lot of inside information. As always with articles like this, there's no way to know how much of it is true, but what it does say sounds very convincing. And if it is true, then the "transatlantic alliance" is headed for complete breach. Bush is fed up; he's "mad as hell and he's not going to take it anymore."
What becomes clear is that there really is a big strategy, and it's a world strategy and not just an Iraq strategy. The maneuverings with the UN were intended to smoke out the weasels and to try to manipulate the balance of power in Europe, while doing everything possible to make sure Tony Blair remains Prime Minister, because he is essential in the next act of the play, the one that comes after Iraq.
The US always had the ability to take care of Iraq all by itself. The force which will do the fighting will contain a significant contribution from the UK, far more than a token contingent. 35,000 men is no small force, but it's dwarfed by the US force which will be involved, and on a straight military basis the US could have done it even without the British contribution. But this article says that for the next step, when the time comes to take on Iran, British support will become vital. A combination of American presence on Iran's border, the simple fact of momentum, and British contacts inside Iran would then be used to bring about revolution there and boot the mullahs. Iran's been ripe for revolution for a long time now; the vast majority of the people chafe at the restrictions placed on them by the mullahs and violate them at every opportunity.
But there's also the entire question of Europe itself. Some there are attempting to design the new government of the EU in a fashion such that its true centers of power would be largely disconnected from voter influence. They're also trying to codify a lot of other rather pernicious principles, and the result could well end up being what one of my readers referred to as the "European Soviet Soci
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